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Signal evaluation — pod manager framework· Live data connected

Generated Apr 11, 2026, 5:21 PM

P&L Attribution

Where does the +1027u come from? (226 settled bets)

Model Edge (EV)

+545.3u

Settling Variance

+481.7u

Total P&L

+1027.1u

Shadow Signal P&L (hypothetical)

HFA Override

+1218.8u

FS All Leagues

+1116.5u

Dynamic xG

+1095.3u

Finishing Luck

+1090.5u

Context xG

+1034.1u

Squad Strength

+1020.3u

GK Change

+1011.6u

Shot-Level xG

+914.3u

Filter Signals

Change which bets are selected

Signal	Main Effect	CLV Effect	Selectivity	N Delta	Live P&L	Status
leagueExclREDUNDANT	0.09pp	0.06pp	81%	-1,406	—	HOLD
regime	0.08pp	0.00pp	99%	-55	—	HOLD
finishing	0.06pp	-0.02pp	97%	-225	—	HOLD
crossBtts	0.05pp	-0.02pp	93%	-490	—	HOLD
gkChange	—	—	100%	—	—	NO DATA
variance	-0.13pp	0.00pp	94%	-448	—	HOLD
crossOu	-0.75pp	-0.07pp	75%	-1,912	—	REMOVE

Lambda Signals

Change edge size on same bets (attack/defense λ adjustments)

Signal	α	β	IR	Sharpe	Max DD	Main Effect	Capacity	Live P&L	Status
squadStrength	—	—	—	—	—	0.00pp	—	+1020.3u	NO DATA
contextXgREDUNDANT	-1.6%	0.99	-0.02	-22.09	19935.03u	0.12pp	5,780,208	+1034.1u	WEAK
hfaOverride	-2.5%	1.00	-0.03	-57.40	83985.12u	-0.62pp	5,152,320	+1218.8u	WEAK
finishingLuck	-2.7%	1.00	-0.03	-15.93	14385.67u	-0.18pp	6,343,424	+1090.5u	WEAK

Redundancy Warnings

Signal pairs with negative interaction (< -0.5pp)

leagueExcl+contextXg-0.7pp

Top 10 Configurations

Highest entry-adjusted ROI from factorial search

#	Signals	Entry ROI	CLV	N
1	regimecrossBttsleagueExclfinishingLuck	+10.4%	+13.7%	6,546
2	regimecrossBttsleagueExclsquadStrengthfinishingLuck	+10.4%	+13.7%	6,546
3	regimefinishingcrossBttsleagueExclfinishingLuck	+10.4%	+13.7%	6,546
4	regimefinishingcrossBttsleagueExclsquadStrengthfinishingLuck	+10.4%	+13.7%	6,546
5	regimegkChangecrossBttsleagueExclfinishingLuck	+10.4%	+13.7%	6,546
6	regimegkChangecrossBttsleagueExclsquadStrengthfinishingLuck	+10.4%	+13.7%	6,546
7	regimegkChangefinishingcrossBttsleagueExclfinishingLuck	+10.4%	+13.7%	6,546
8	regimegkChangefinishingcrossBttsleagueExclsquadStrengthfinishingLuck	+10.4%	+13.7%	6,546
9	varianceregimefinishingcrossBttscontextXg	+10.4%	+13.8%	8,121
10	varianceregimefinishingcrossBttssquadStrengthcontextXg	+10.4%	+13.8%	8,121

Interaction Heatmap

	varia.	regime	gkCha.	finis.	cross.	cross.	leagu.	squad.	hfaOv.	finis.	conte.
varia.	—	-0	+0	+0	-0	-0	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0
regime	-0	—	+0	-0	-0	+0	+0	+0	-0	-0	-0
gkCha.	+0	+0	—	+0	+0	+0	+0	+0	+0	+0	+0
finis.	+0	-0	+0	—	+0	-0	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0
cross.	-0	-0	+0	+0	—	-0	-0	+0	+0	+0	-0
cross.	-0	+0	+0	-0	-0	—	+0	+0	+0	+0	+0
leagu.	-0	+0	+0	-0	-0	+0	—	+0	-0	+0	-1
squad.	+0	+0	+0	+0	+0	+0	+0	—	+0	+0	+0
hfaOv.	+0	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0	+0	—	-0	-0
finis.	-0	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0	—	-0
conte.	+0	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	-1	+0	-0	-0	—

Correlation Matrix

	varia.	regime	gkCha.	finis.	cross.	cross.	leagu.	squad.	hfaOv.	finis.	conte.
varia.	—	+0	+0	+0	+0	+0	+0	+0	+0	+0	+0
regime	+0	—	+0	+0	+0	+0	+0	+0	+0	+0	+0
gkCha.	+0	+0	—	+0	+0	+0	+0	+0	+0	+0	+0
finis.	+0	+0	+0	—	+0	+0	+0	+0	+0	+0	+0
cross.	+0	+0	+0	+0	—	+0	+0	+0	+0	+0	+0
cross.	+0	+0	+0	+0	+0	—	+0	+0	+0	+0	+0
leagu.	+0	+0	+0	+0	+0	+0	—	+0	+0	+0	+0
squad.	+0	+0	+0	+0	+0	+0	+0	—	+0	+0	+0
hfaOv.	+0	+0	+0	+0	+0	+0	+0	+0	—	+0	+0
finis.	+0	+0	+0	+0	+0	+0	+0	+0	+0	—	+0
conte.	+0	+0	+0	+0	+0	+0	+0	+0	+0	+0	—

Portfolio Builder

Greedy forward selection — signals added in order of marginal contribution

1leagueExcl

+0.5%

cum: -1.9%

2regime

+0.2%

cum: -1.7%

Best Configuration

Optimal combo #594 · bits: 01001010010

regimecrossBttsleagueExclfinishingLuck

ROI

-1.6%

CLV

+13.7%

N bets

6,546