Sports Dashboard

MI Bivariate Poisson + Dixon-Coles + Elo

← Back to Blog
|Research|ACCEPTED

Raising the Edge Floor from 7% to 12%: Why It Works Now (and Didn't Before)

Higher minEdge monotonically improves entryROI AND CLV across 13 walk-forward folds on the factorial base combo. minEdge=0.12 gives +4.91pp entryROI and +4.24pp CLV over production. Previous tests (March 26) found no effect — the difference is the factorial combo changes which bets appear at each edge level.

ACCEPTEDSignal: edge-threshold-sweep|2026-04-16