Signal inter-model-disagreement: Rejected
When v3 69-feature model and FotMob match-level xG disagree significantly about a team's rolling performance, it indicates unusual match characteristics that create prediction uncertainty. High |disagreement| matches are harder to predict — skip or size down.. not-significant
Hypothesis
When v3 69-feature model and FotMob match-level xG disagree significantly about a team's rolling performance, it indicates unusual match characteristics that create prediction uncertainty. High |disagreement| matches are harder to predict — skip or size down.
Result
9/10 gates passed. Marginal entry-adj ROI +1.1pp (passes practical significance). Bootstrap p=0.24 (fails <0.10). Walk-forward 10/13 folds positive. Most promising multi-source signal but not yet statistically significant.
Gate Results
| Gate | Name | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pre-registered | PASS |
| 2 | True standalone | PASS |
| 3 | Minimum N | PASS |
| 4 | Marginal ROI | PASS |
| 5 | Bootstrap marginal significance | FAIL |
| 6 | Matchday interleave OOS | PASS |
| 7 | Regime stratification | PASS |
| 8 | Suspicious N | PASS |
| 9 | Practical significance | PASS |
| 10 | Walk-forward | PASS |
Rejection Reason
not-significant
Failed gates: Bootstrap marginal significance