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MI Bivariate Poisson + Dixon-Coles + Elo

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|Signal Test|REJECTED

Signal finishingLuck: Rejected

Auto-registered by test-signal.ts. no-signal

Marginal ROI
+0.6%
entry-adjusted
N
224,348
CLV
+6.0%
Gates
7/10

Hypothesis

Auto-registered by test-signal.ts

Result

7/10 gates passed. Zero marginal contribution (+0.0pp entry-adj ROI). Identical N=224764 to footystats-all-regression — the two signals select the same bets. Bootstrap p=0.50. No deployment path.

Gate Results

GateNameResult
1Pre-registeredPASS
2True standalonePASS
3Minimum NPASS
4Marginal ROIPASS
5Bootstrap marginal significanceFAIL
6Matchday interleave OOSFAIL
7Regime stratificationPASS
8Suspicious NFAIL
9Practical significancePASS
10Walk-forwardPASS

Rejection Reason

no-signal

Failed gates: Bootstrap marginal significance, Matchday interleave OOS, Suspicious N

REJECTEDSignal: finishingLuck|2026-04-11