|Signal Test|REJECTED
Signal contextXg: Rejected
Context-adjusted xG (venue, GK, squad, regime corrections) improves lambda estimation, producing more accurate edges and better bet selection. Did not pass approval gates.
Marginal ROI
+0.5%
entry-adjusted
N
230,558
CLV
+6.2%
Gates
8/10
Hypothesis
Context-adjusted xG (venue, GK, squad, regime corrections) improves lambda estimation, producing more accurate edges and better bet selection
Gate Results
| Gate | Name | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pre-registered | PASS |
| 2 | True standalone | PASS |
| 3 | Minimum N | PASS |
| 4 | Marginal ROI | PASS |
| 5 | Bootstrap marginal significance | FAIL |
| 6 | Matchday interleave OOS | PASS |
| 7 | Regime stratification | PASS |
| 8 | Suspicious N | PASS |
| 9 | Practical significance | FAIL |
| 10 | Walk-forward | PASS |
Failed gates: Bootstrap marginal significance, Practical significance
REJECTEDSignal: contextXg|2026-04-11